2026 season · frozen pregame numbers only
Accuracy
Every FINAL against the HX line and win probability that were live before kickoff. The pregame number is frozen when a game is stamped and never rewritten by a later board. Games with no frozen number are marked n/a, not backfilled.
Winners picked
70.4%
387 of 550 picks
Average miss
13.2 pts
|final margin − HX line|
Brier score
0.194
win % calibration · lower is better
Graded
551
of 696 FINALs · 145 n/a
Against the Vegas line
On the 344 graded games that also have a Vegas line on file, HX missed by 13.1 points on average and the stamped Vegas line missed by 11.6. The market is still better. That is the Soft-cal FLAG, and it stays up. Bias -0.9 (positive = home teams beat the HX line).
By week
Tap a week for its games| Week | Graded | Winners | Avg miss | Brier | HX / Vegas miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 6/8 | 50.0% | 15.1 | 0.247 | 15.1 / 14.8 (6) |
| Week 1 | 43/91 | 83.7% | 14.9 | 0.130 | 14.9 / 13.6 (43) |
| Week 2 | 47/86 | 78.7% | 12.2 | 0.147 | 12.2 / 10.5 (47) |
| Week 3 | 56/75 | 87.5% | 10.0 | 0.119 | 10.0 / 8.7 (56) |
| Week 4 | 57/71 | 73.7% | 12.8 | 0.181 | 12.8 / 11.2 (57) |
| Week 5 | 55/59 | 70.4% | 14.9 | 0.195 | 14.9 / 13.2 (55) |
| Week 6 | 56/58 | 58.9% | 12.7 | 0.232 | 12.7 / 11.5 (56) |
| Week 7 | 57/62 | 59.6% | 12.7 | 0.234 | 12.5 / 13.7 (6) |
| Week 8 | 54/56 | 57.4% | 13.0 | 0.260 | 12.3 / 7.4 (7) |
| Week 9 | 54/56 | 81.5% | 12.4 | 0.153 | 20.8 / 17.0 (6) |
| Week 10 | 61/63 | 59.0% | 16.0 | 0.266 | 21.8 / 19.8 (5) |
| Week 11 | 5/11 | 80.0% | 16.8 | 0.123 | n/a |
| Season | 551/696 | 70.4% | 13.2 | 0.194 | 13.1 / 11.6 (344) |
Week 0 games
8 FINALs- UNC 15 vs TCU 102026-08-29 · Box scoreHX TCU −10.974.2%miss 15.9
- San José St 26 at USC 422026-08-29 · Box scoreHX USC −37.895.0%miss 21.8
- NC State 8 at Virginia 342026-08-29 · Box scoreHX Virginia −1.152.9%miss 24.9
- Hawaiʻi 27 at Stanford 372026-08-29 · Box scoreHX Hawaiʻi −1.453.8%miss 11.4
- NM State 17 at Florida St 342026-08-29 · Box scoreHX Florida St −22.687.7%miss 5.6
- Memphis 27 at UNLV 212026-08-29 · Box scoreHX UNLV −5.363.5%miss 11.3
- Jax State 7 at N Dakota St 332026-08-29 · Box scoren/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line
- Sacramento St 17 at Eastern Mich 282026-08-29 · Box scoren/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line
How games are graded
- The pregame number is the HX board that was live when the game was stamped FINAL, saved on the game (Week 0 was frozen before the coach-change moves). Later refits never touch it.
- HX line and win % come from those two numbers through the board's matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field).
- Winners picked counts games where the HX favorite won; pick'ems don't count. Average miss = |final margin − HX line|. Brier = squared gap between the HX win % and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
- n/a: FCS opponents (no HX), and 2026 newcomers' games before they joined the board. These are never filled in from a later board.
- Vegas comparison uses only games with a Vegas line on file. Method on The Model.