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HASHMARK

2026 season · frozen pregame numbers only

Accuracy

Every FINAL against the HX line and win probability that were live before kickoff. The pregame number is frozen when a game is stamped and never rewritten by a later board. Games with no frozen number are marked n/a, not backfilled.

Winners picked
70.4%
387 of 550 picks
Average miss
13.2 pts
|final margin − HX line|
Brier score
0.194
win % calibration · lower is better
Graded
551
of 696 FINALs · 145 n/a

Against the Vegas line

On the 344 graded games that also have a Vegas line on file, HX missed by 13.1 points on average and the stamped Vegas line missed by 11.6. The market is still better. That is the Soft-cal FLAG, and it stays up. Bias -0.9 (positive = home teams beat the HX line).

By week

Tap a week for its games
WeekGradedWinnersAvg miss
Week 06/850.0%15.1
Week 143/9183.7%14.9
Week 247/8678.7%12.2
Week 356/7587.5%10.0
Week 457/7173.7%12.8
Week 555/5970.4%14.9
Week 656/5858.9%12.7
Week 757/6259.6%12.7
Week 854/5657.4%13.0
Week 954/5681.5%12.4
Week 1061/6359.0%16.0
Week 115/1180.0%16.8
Season551/69670.4%13.2

Week 6 games

58 FINALs
  • Southern Miss 34 at Troy 55
    2026-10-06 · Box score
    HX Troy −2.055.5%miss 19.0
  • Jax State 27 at Kennesaw 26
    2026-10-07 · Box score
    HX Jax State −6.165.3%miss 5.1
  • NM State 3 at FIU 22
    2026-10-07 · Box score
    HX FIU −9.171.1%miss 9.9
  • Sam Houston 3 at Liberty 35
    2026-10-08 · Box score
    HX Liberty −16.481.8%miss 15.6
  • Missouri St 13 at WKU 34
    2026-10-08 · Box score
    HX WKU −13.978.6%miss 7.1
  • USF 24 at UTSA 31
    2026-10-08 · Box score
    HX UTSA −7.067.2%miss 0.0
  • South Alabama 56 at Arkansas St 49
    2026-10-08 · Box score
    HX Arkansas St −7.568.2%miss 14.5
  • Florida St 20 at Louisville 44
    2026-10-09 · Box score
    HX Louisville −12.476.6%miss 11.6
  • Wash St 16 at Utah St 17
    2026-10-09 · Box score
    HX Wash St −0.952.4%miss 1.9
  • Wyoming 16 at San José St 13
    2026-10-09 · Box score
    HX San José St −1.955.3%miss 4.9
  • Iowa 41 at Washington 24
    2026-10-09 · Box score
    HX Washington −1.955.2%miss 18.9
  • Iowa St 10 at BYU 24
    2026-10-09 · Box score
    HX BYU −15.080.1%miss 1.0
  • Kansas 24 at Utah 41
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Utah −15.680.9%miss 1.4
  • Kent St 7 at Western Mich 38
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Western Mich −28.191.2%miss 2.9
  • Buffalo 23 at Toledo 8
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Toledo −21.686.9%miss 36.6
  • Syracuse 25 at Virginia 28
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Virginia −12.576.7%miss 9.5
  • Tennessee 24 at Arkansas 17
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Tennessee −7.468.0%miss 0.4
  • Eastern Mich 25 at Akron 23
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Akron −0.651.7%miss 2.6
  • Duke 25 at Georgia Tech 28
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Georgia Tech −3.559.3%miss 0.5
  • Charlotte 10 at North Texas 50
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX North Texas −15.781.0%miss 24.3
  • Central Mich 14 at Ohio 31
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Ohio −15.680.9%miss 1.4
  • S Carolina 38 at Florida 19
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Florida −5.263.3%miss 24.2
  • LSU 34 at Kentucky 35
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX LSU −8.670.3%miss 9.6
  • Minnesota 13 at Purdue 41
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Minnesota −7.167.3%miss 35.1
  • Nevada 30 at UTEP 13
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX UTEP −2.657.0%miss 19.6
  • Rice 12 at ECU 28
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX ECU −14.279.2%miss 1.8
  • UCLA 17 at Oregon 15
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Oregon −24.589.0%miss 26.5
  • Texas A&M 6 at Missouri 27
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Texas A&M −2.155.7%miss 23.1
  • Arizona 52 at W Virginia 31
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Arizona −7.568.2%miss 13.5
  • UConn 34 at Temple 20
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX UConn −0.852.4%miss 13.2
  • UAB 13 at Memphis 38
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Memphis −14.379.2%miss 10.7
  • Ole Miss 52 at Vanderbilt 17
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Ole Miss −5.864.6%miss 29.2
  • USC 31 at Penn St 23
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Penn St −4.461.5%miss 12.4
  • Louisiana 31 at LA Tech 32
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX LA Tech −0.250.6%miss 0.8
  • Maryland 16 at Ohio St 45
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Ohio St −37.794.9%miss 8.7
  • Georgia 20 at Alabama 17
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Georgia −4.661.8%miss 1.6
  • Indiana 20 at Nebraska 17
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Indiana −5.764.3%miss 2.7
  • Coastal 27 at Marshall 21
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Marshall −10.974.2%miss 16.9
  • UNC 21 at Pitt 17
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Pitt −9.571.8%miss 13.5
  • Hawaiʻi 12 at Arizona St 30
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Arizona St −12.276.3%miss 5.8
  • JMU 27 at Ga Southern 24
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX JMU −7.167.2%miss 4.1
  • ODU 10 at App State 3
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX App State −0.952.6%miss 7.9
  • Houston 35 at Kansas St 16
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Kansas St −5.764.4%miss 24.7
  • Illinois 38 at Michigan St 37
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Illinois −7.568.1%miss 6.5
  • Ball St 14 at Northwestern 45
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Northwestern −32.593.2%miss 1.5
  • Virginia Tech 20 at Cal 25
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Cal −1.253.4%miss 3.8
  • UCF 28 at Oklahoma St 42
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Oklahoma St −1.955.2%miss 12.1
  • Wake Forest 38 at NC State 14
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX NC State −10.974.3%miss 34.9
  • Miami (OH) 20 at UMass 19
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Miami (OH) −25.689.7%miss 24.6
  • Tulane 17 at Army 20
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Tulane −6.365.6%miss 9.3
  • Stanford 7 at Notre Dame 58
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Notre Dame −35.894.3%miss 15.2
  • Texas 24 vs Oklahoma 27
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Texas −7.067.2%miss 10.0
  • Tulsa 26 at Navy 34
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Tulsa −2.556.6%miss 10.5
  • San Diego St 14 at Oregon St 66
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX San Diego St −1.955.3%miss 53.9
  • Air Force 28 at NIU 7
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX NIU −8.970.7%miss 29.9
  • Boise St 38 at Fresno St 31
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    HX Boise St −0.250.5%miss 6.8
  • Sacramento St 10 at Bowling Grn 38
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line
  • N Dakota St 7 at UNLV 13
    2026-10-10 · Box score
    n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line

How games are graded

  • The pregame number is the HX board that was live when the game was stamped FINAL, saved on the game (Week 0 was frozen before the coach-change moves). Later refits never touch it.
  • HX line and win % come from those two numbers through the board's matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field).
  • Winners picked counts games where the HX favorite won; pick'ems don't count. Average miss = |final margin − HX line|. Brier = squared gap between the HX win % and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
  • n/a: FCS opponents (no HX), and 2026 newcomers' games before they joined the board. These are never filled in from a later board.
  • Vegas comparison uses only games with a Vegas line on file. Method on The Model.