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HASHMARK

2026 season · frozen pregame numbers only

Accuracy

Every FINAL against the HX line and win probability that were live before kickoff. The pregame number is frozen when a game is stamped and never rewritten by a later board. Games with no frozen number are marked n/a, not backfilled.

Winners picked
70.4%
387 of 550 picks
Average miss
13.2 pts
|final margin − HX line|
Brier score
0.194
win % calibration · lower is better
Graded
551
of 696 FINALs · 145 n/a

Against the Vegas line

On the 344 graded games that also have a Vegas line on file, HX missed by 13.1 points on average and the stamped Vegas line missed by 11.6. The market is still better. That is the Soft-cal FLAG, and it stays up. Bias -0.9 (positive = home teams beat the HX line).

By week

Tap a week for its games
WeekGradedWinnersAvg miss
Week 06/850.0%15.1
Week 143/9183.7%14.9
Week 247/8678.7%12.2
Week 356/7587.5%10.0
Week 457/7173.7%12.8
Week 555/5970.4%14.9
Week 656/5858.9%12.7
Week 757/6259.6%12.7
Week 854/5657.4%13.0
Week 954/5681.5%12.4
Week 1061/6359.0%16.0
Week 115/1180.0%16.8
Season551/69670.4%13.2

Week 5 games

59 FINALs
  • WKU 13 at NM State 34
    2026-10-01 · Box score
    HX WKU −13.077.5%miss 34.0
  • North Texas 45 at Tulsa 44
    2026-10-01 · Box score
    HX Tulsa −0.350.9%miss 1.3
  • Liberty 30 at Delaware 14
    2026-10-02 · Box score
    HX Liberty −2.857.4%miss 13.2
  • Pitt 35 at Virginia Tech 33
    2026-10-02 · Box score
    HX Virginia Tech −4.461.3%miss 6.4
  • Penn St 13 at Northwestern 34
    2026-10-02 · Box score
    HX Penn St −4.361.1%miss 25.3
  • Texas Southern 10 at florida-atlantic 66
    2026-10-03
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • McNeese 14 at lsu 63
    2026-10-03
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Samford 14 at uab 33
    2026-10-03
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Toledo 39 at Ball St 24
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Toledo −21.186.5%miss 6.1
  • Florida 17 at Missouri 45
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Missouri −5.664.1%miss 22.4
  • Akron 17 at Central Mich 41
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Central Mich −3.860.1%miss 20.2
  • UTEP 7 at New Mexico 61
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX New Mexico −16.181.4%miss 37.9
  • Eastern Mich 38 at UMass 14
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Eastern Mich −17.983.4%miss 6.1
  • Cincinnati 7 at Arizona 34
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Arizona −15.180.2%miss 11.9
  • Louisville 28 at NC State 31
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX NC State −0.651.6%miss 2.4
  • San José St 20 at Hawaiʻi 16
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Hawaiʻi −14.879.8%miss 18.8
  • Washington 21 at USC 25
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX USC −5.263.1%miss 1.2
  • Stanford 3 at Wake Forest 57
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Wake Forest −4.862.4%miss 49.2
  • Virginia 7 at Florida St 38
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX PK50.0%miss 31.0PK
  • Notre Dame 37 at UNC 26
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Notre Dame −26.390.1%miss 15.3
  • Arkansas St 20 at Louisiana 23
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Louisiana −4.561.7%miss 1.5
  • UL Monroe 35 at South Alabama 52
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX South Alabama −10.473.5%miss 6.6
  • ODU 10 at Georgia St 42
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX ODU −5.864.6%miss 37.8
  • Ga Southern 31 at Coastal 24
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Coastal −2.857.5%miss 9.8
  • W Virginia 42 at Iowa St 45
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Iowa St −9.972.5%miss 6.9
  • Michigan 14 at Minnesota 20
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Michigan −6.065.0%miss 12.0
  • Auburn 14 at Tennessee 24
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Tennessee −9.471.8%miss 0.6
  • Army 29 at LA Tech 31
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX LA Tech −11.074.4%miss 9.0
  • Middle Tenn 0 at Kansas 55
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Kansas −24.789.1%miss 30.3
  • UCF 17 at Houston 27
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Houston −11.374.8%miss 1.3
  • Kentucky 35 at S Carolina 34
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX S Carolina −12.176.1%miss 13.1
  • Marshall 17 at JMU 45
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX JMU −7.568.1%miss 20.5
  • Ohio 13 at Kent St 10
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Ohio −17.583.0%miss 14.5
  • Alabama 56 at Miss St 23
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Alabama −13.377.9%miss 19.7
  • Maryland 23 at Nebraska 48
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Nebraska −11.174.6%miss 13.9
  • Miami 41 at Clemson 13
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Miami −0.952.5%miss 27.1
  • Memphis 59 at Charlotte 8
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Memphis −20.786.1%miss 30.3
  • Texas Tech 29 at Colorado 7
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Texas Tech −17.883.3%miss 4.2
  • Baylor 55 at Arizona St 19
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Arizona St −5.363.6%miss 41.3
  • Arkansas 7 at Texas A&M 34
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Texas A&M −24.388.9%miss 2.7
  • Western Mich 20 at Buffalo 17
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Western Mich −8.670.3%miss 5.6
  • BYU 17 at TCU 10
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX BYU −2.456.6%miss 4.6
  • Michigan St 3 at Wisconsin 31
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Wisconsin −14.078.9%miss 14.0
  • Purdue 24 at Illinois 17
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Illinois −14.379.2%miss 21.3
  • Ohio St 31 at Iowa 14
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Ohio St −9.772.2%miss 7.3
  • Boston Coll 16 at SMU 25
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX SMU −28.391.3%miss 19.3
  • UTSA 16 at Rice 14
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX UTSA −12.777.1%miss 10.7
  • Temple 17 at USF 13
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX USF −15.580.7%miss 19.5
  • Vanderbilt 14 at Georgia 38
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Georgia −24.388.8%miss 0.3
  • Bowling Grn 24 at Miami (OH) 20
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Miami (OH) −15.480.6%miss 19.4
  • Syracuse 42 at UConn 41
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX UConn −1.654.3%miss 2.6
  • Navy 9 at Air Force 14
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Navy −0.952.4%miss 5.9
  • Cal 31 at UNLV 39
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX UNLV −7.167.3%miss 0.9
  • Oregon St 56 at Colorado St 26
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Oregon St −3.759.8%miss 26.3
  • Utah St 18 at Boise St 37
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Boise St −9.972.6%miss 9.1
  • Indiana 47 at Rutgers 15
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Indiana −13.177.6%miss 18.9
  • Fresno St 26 at Wash St 6
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX Wash St −5.263.1%miss 25.2
  • Texas St 29 at San Diego St 31
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    HX San Diego St −3.258.6%miss 1.2
  • Wyoming 0 at N Dakota St 28
    2026-10-03 · Box score
    n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line

How games are graded

  • The pregame number is the HX board that was live when the game was stamped FINAL, saved on the game (Week 0 was frozen before the coach-change moves). Later refits never touch it.
  • HX line and win % come from those two numbers through the board's matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field).
  • Winners picked counts games where the HX favorite won; pick'ems don't count. Average miss = |final margin − HX line|. Brier = squared gap between the HX win % and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
  • n/a: FCS opponents (no HX), and 2026 newcomers' games before they joined the board. These are never filled in from a later board.
  • Vegas comparison uses only games with a Vegas line on file. Method on The Model.