2026 season · frozen pregame numbers only

Accuracy

Every FINAL against the HX line and win probability that were live before kickoff. The pregame number is frozen when a game is stamped and never rewritten by a later board. Games with no frozen number are marked n/a, not backfilled.

Winners picked

70.4%

387 of 550 picks

Average miss

13.2 pts

|final margin − HX line|

Brier score

0.194

win % calibration · lower is better

Graded

551

of 696 FINALs · 145 n/a

Against the Vegas line

On the 344 graded games that also have a Vegas line on file, HX missed by 13.1 points on average and the stamped Vegas line missed by 11.6. The market is still better. That is the Soft-cal FLAG, and it stays up. Bias -0.9 (positive = home teams beat the HX line).

By week

Tap a week for its games

Week	Graded	Winners	Avg miss	Brier	HX / Vegas miss
Week 0	6/8	50.0%	15.1	0.247	15.1 / 14.8 (6)
Week 1	43/91	83.7%	14.9	0.130	14.9 / 13.6 (43)
Week 2	47/86	78.7%	12.2	0.147	12.2 / 10.5 (47)
Week 3	56/75	87.5%	10.0	0.119	10.0 / 8.7 (56)
Week 4	57/71	73.7%	12.8	0.181	12.8 / 11.2 (57)
Week 5	55/59	70.4%	14.9	0.195	14.9 / 13.2 (55)
Week 6	56/58	58.9%	12.7	0.232	12.7 / 11.5 (56)
Week 7	57/62	59.6%	12.7	0.234	12.5 / 13.7 (6)
Week 8	54/56	57.4%	13.0	0.260	12.3 / 7.4 (7)
Week 9	54/56	81.5%	12.4	0.153	20.8 / 17.0 (6)
Week 10	61/63	59.0%	16.0	0.266	21.8 / 19.8 (5)
Week 11	5/11	80.0%	16.8	0.123	n/a
Season	551/696	70.4%	13.2	0.194	13.1 / 11.6 (344)

Week 3 games

75 FINALs

Syracuse 13 at Pitt 27
2026-09-17 · Box score
HX Pitt −10.874.1%miss 3.2
Portland State 0 at oregon 84
2026-09-18
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Miami 33 at Wake Forest 20
2026-09-18 · Box score
HX Miami −15.080.1%miss 2.0
Houston 26 at Texas Tech 28
2026-09-18 · Box score
HX Texas Tech −18.884.4%miss 16.8
Delaware State 17 at usf 59
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Eastern Washington 16 at washington 48
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Duquesne 7 at washington-state 48
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Northern Iowa 0 at iowa 55
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
South Dakota 24 at boise-state 38
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Maine 16 at boston-college 22
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Wagner 7 at california 49
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Mercer 11 at georgia-tech 44
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Southern Illinois 10 at illinois 48
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Stonehill 14 at massachusetts 36
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
UT Martin 21 at memphis 45
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
North Dakota 7 at nebraska 34
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Murray State 0 at oklahoma-state 59
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Montana 17 at oregon-state 52
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Nicholls 0 at sam-houston 59
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
East Texas A&M 0 at tulsa 42
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
SE Louisiana 38 at ul-monroe 35
2026-09-19
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Coastal 14 at Delaware 22
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Delaware −1.654.4%miss 6.4
Georgia 45 at Arkansas 17
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Georgia −22.887.8%miss 5.2
Akron 7 at Minnesota 41
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Minnesota −24.288.8%miss 9.8
Arizona St 24 vs Kansas 17
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Arizona St −2.556.7%miss 4.5
Tulane 20 at Kansas St 31
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Kansas St −16.081.3%miss 5.0
Buffalo 13 at Penn St 55
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Penn St −35.394.2%miss 6.7
UNC 20 at Clemson 28
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Clemson −21.686.9%miss 13.6
Bowling Grn 7 at Iowa St 55
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Iowa St −23.188.0%miss 24.9
Kent St 3 at Ohio St 59
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Ohio St −71.799.1%miss 15.7
Eastern Mich 10 at Wisconsin 54
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Wisconsin −17.182.6%miss 26.9
Troy 17 at Missouri 27
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Missouri −24.488.9%miss 14.4
NC State 31 at Vanderbilt 35
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Vanderbilt −4.260.9%miss 0.2
Wyoming 10 at Central Mich 24
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Central Mich −4.561.7%miss 9.5
Temple 48 at Toledo 49
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Toledo −21.486.7%miss 20.4
Utah St 0 at Utah 33
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Utah −21.887.0%miss 11.2
Miami (OH) 31 at Cincinnati 35
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Cincinnati −3.158.2%miss 0.9
Florida St 36 at Alabama 50
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Alabama −22.187.3%miss 8.1
UTEP 17 at Michigan 52
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Michigan −50.697.5%miss 15.6
SMU 31 at Louisville 41
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Louisville −0.150.4%miss 9.9
Kentucky 31 at Texas A&M 21
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Texas A&M −26.090.0%miss 36.0
USC 42 at Rutgers 35
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX USC −9.371.5%miss 2.3
WKU 0 at Indiana 38
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Indiana −20.886.1%miss 17.2
Stanford 7 at Duke 35
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Duke −11.074.3%miss 17.0
Ball St 15 at Liberty 51
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Liberty −21.486.7%miss 14.6
LA Tech 19 at Baylor 36
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Baylor −14.078.9%miss 3.0
Miss St 41 at S Carolina 34
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX S Carolina −12.977.2%miss 19.9
Charlotte 21 at App State 26
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX App State −16.181.5%miss 11.1
ECU 20 at ODU 17
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX ODU −0.651.7%miss 3.6
FIU 10 at FAU 16
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX FAU −3.258.5%miss 2.8
Marshall 30 at Missouri St 24
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Marshall −5.664.2%miss 0.4
Ohio 36 at South Alabama 41
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Ohio −6.064.9%miss 11.0
Georgia St 30 at UCF 44
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX UCF −16.481.8%miss 2.4
UConn 48 at Southern Miss 20
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Southern Miss −7.267.5%miss 35.2
Western Mich 28 at Rice 21
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Western Mich −9.872.3%miss 2.8
Florida 44 at Auburn 39
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Florida −0.551.4%miss 4.5
Ga Southern 27 at Jax State 31
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Jax State −6.365.5%miss 2.3
Nevada 20 at Middle Tenn 27
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Middle Tenn −5.062.7%miss 2.0
Colorado 7 at Northwestern 41
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Northwestern −10.673.7%miss 23.4
Michigan St 10 at Notre Dame 27
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Notre Dame −41.996.0%miss 24.9
Virginia Tech 35 at Maryland 26
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Virginia Tech −0.952.6%miss 8.1
New Mexico 6 at Oklahoma 14
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Oklahoma −27.590.8%miss 19.5
W Virginia 38 vs Virginia 27
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Virginia −8.369.7%miss 19.3
BYU 41 at Colorado St 23
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX BYU −23.288.1%miss 5.2
LSU 24 at Ole Miss 32
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Ole Miss −7.868.8%miss 0.2
Kennesaw 9 at Tennessee 42
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Tennessee −37.294.8%miss 4.2
Arkansas St 7 at TCU 31
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX TCU −16.582.0%miss 7.5
UTSA 6 at Texas 30
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Texas −22.787.7%miss 1.3
UAB 14 at Louisiana 21
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Louisiana −6.465.9%miss 0.6
North Texas 35 at Texas St 49
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Texas St −13.478.0%miss 0.6
JMU 26 at San Diego St 13
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX San Diego St −1.152.9%miss 14.1
NIU 17 at Arizona 42
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Arizona −32.793.3%miss 7.7
Purdue 38 at UCLA 52
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX UCLA −13.177.6%miss 0.9
Fresno St 26 at San José St 10
2026-09-19 · Box score
HX Fresno St −11.174.6%miss 4.9
N Dakota St 31 at Sacramento St 10
2026-09-19 · Box score
n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line

How games are graded

The pregame number is the HX board that was live when the game was stamped FINAL, saved on the game (Week 0 was frozen before the coach-change moves). Later refits never touch it.
HX line and win % come from those two numbers through the board's matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field).
Winners picked counts games where the HX favorite won; pick'ems don't count. Average miss = |final margin − HX line|. Brier = squared gap between the HX win % and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
n/a: FCS opponents (no HX), and 2026 newcomers' games before they joined the board. These are never filled in from a later board.
Vegas comparison uses only games with a Vegas line on file. Method on The Model.