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HASHMARK

2026 season · frozen pregame numbers only

Accuracy

Every FINAL against the HX line and win probability that were live before kickoff. The pregame number is frozen when a game is stamped and never rewritten by a later board. Games with no frozen number are marked n/a, not backfilled.

Winners picked
70.4%
387 of 550 picks
Average miss
13.2 pts
|final margin − HX line|
Brier score
0.194
win % calibration · lower is better
Graded
551
of 696 FINALs · 145 n/a

Against the Vegas line

On the 344 graded games that also have a Vegas line on file, HX missed by 13.1 points on average and the stamped Vegas line missed by 11.6. The market is still better. That is the Soft-cal FLAG, and it stays up. Bias -0.9 (positive = home teams beat the HX line).

By week

Tap a week for its games
WeekGradedWinnersAvg miss
Week 06/850.0%15.1
Week 143/9183.7%14.9
Week 247/8678.7%12.2
Week 356/7587.5%10.0
Week 457/7173.7%12.8
Week 555/5970.4%14.9
Week 656/5858.9%12.7
Week 757/6259.6%12.7
Week 854/5657.4%13.0
Week 954/5681.5%12.4
Week 1061/6359.0%16.0
Week 115/1180.0%16.8
Season551/69670.4%13.2

Week 10 games

63 FINALs
  • Buffalo 34 at Miami (OH) 31
    2026-11-03 · Box score
    HX Miami (OH) −11.575.1%miss 14.5
  • Ohio 28 at Akron 20
    2026-11-03 · Box score
    HX Ohio −8.670.2%miss 0.6
  • Ball St 30 at UMass 31
    2026-11-04 · Box score
    HX Ball St −7.768.4%miss 8.7
  • Central Mich 35 vs Eastern Mich 7
    2026-11-04 · Box score
    HX Eastern Mich −1.654.3%miss 29.6
  • Toledo 20 at Sacramento St 17
    2026-11-04 · Box score
    n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line
  • JMU 54 at Southern Miss 23
    2026-11-05 · Box score
    HX JMU −3.258.5%miss 27.8
  • UTSA 29 at FAU 60
    2026-11-05 · Box score
    HX UTSA −10.473.5%miss 41.4
  • Virginia Tech 28 at SMU 51
    2026-11-06 · Box score
    HX SMU −12.676.9%miss 10.4
  • USF 17 at ECU 20
    2026-11-06 · Box score
    HX ECU −1.554.2%miss 1.5
  • Nebraska 13 at Illinois 24
    2026-11-06 · Box score
    HX Illinois −1.955.2%miss 9.1
  • New Mexico 31 at Nevada 3
    2026-11-06 · Box score
    HX New Mexico −7.167.4%miss 20.9
  • TCU 28 at Arizona 29
    2026-11-06 · Box score
    HX Arizona −3.759.8%miss 2.7
  • Merrimack 0 at wake-forest 77
    2026-11-07
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Liberty 30 at NM State 14
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Liberty −10.172.8%miss 5.9
  • Hawaiʻi 17 at UTEP 14
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Hawaiʻi −11.274.8%miss 8.2
  • W Virginia 48 at Texas Tech 53
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Texas Tech −31.192.6%miss 26.1
  • Louisville 44 at Georgia Tech 17
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Louisville −0.852.2%miss 26.2
  • Vanderbilt 25 at Miss St 23
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Vanderbilt −3.459.0%miss 1.4
  • Florida St 31 at Boston Coll 24
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Florida St −4.661.9%miss 2.4
  • UCF 33 at Kansas 32
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Kansas −8.469.8%miss 9.4
  • Rutgers 10 at Wisconsin 31
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Wisconsin −7.367.7%miss 13.7
  • Maryland 34 at Purdue 29
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Maryland −0.150.1%miss 4.9
  • Duke 41 at NC State 3
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX NC State −5.062.8%miss 43.0
  • Texas 34 at Missouri 20
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Texas −3.358.7%miss 10.7
  • UCLA 34 at Minnesota 20
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Minnesota −4.962.6%miss 18.9
  • Tulsa 60 at Tulane 10
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Tulane −9.772.3%miss 59.7
  • Clemson 18 at Syracuse 13
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Clemson −13.678.3%miss 8.6
  • Penn St 28 at Washington 25
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Washington −0.350.7%miss 3.3
  • Marshall 13 at Ga Southern 49
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Marshall −2.957.8%miss 38.9
  • Rice 23 at North Texas 52
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX North Texas −7.768.5%miss 21.3
  • UL Monroe 19 at Arkansas St 17
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Arkansas St −15.580.8%miss 17.5
  • Missouri St 20 at FIU 23
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX FIU −2.256.0%miss 0.8
  • NIU 19 at San José St 30
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX San José St −5.263.2%miss 5.8
  • Oregon 41 at Ohio St 28
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Ohio St −6.265.5%miss 19.2
  • Delaware 40 at Kennesaw 42
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Delaware −0.752.1%miss 2.7
  • Georgia St 39 at App State 23
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX App State −10.273.1%miss 26.2
  • Charlotte 12 at UAB 23
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX UAB −16.682.0%miss 5.6
  • WKU 42 at Middle Tenn 51
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX WKU −13.678.3%miss 22.6
  • Iowa 24 at Northwestern 10
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Iowa −2.356.1%miss 11.7
  • Georgia 42 at Ole Miss 7
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Georgia −4.160.7%miss 30.9
  • ODU 21 at Coastal 8
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Coastal −1.453.9%miss 14.4
  • Cincinnati 24 at Houston 31
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Houston −12.476.6%miss 5.4
  • Colorado 10 at Arizona St 20
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Arizona St −9.471.8%miss 0.6
  • Arkansas 23 at Auburn 26
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Auburn −8.870.6%miss 5.8
  • Michigan St 15 at Michigan 6
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Michigan −30.792.4%miss 39.7
  • South Alabama 26 at Louisiana 28
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Louisiana −9.171.1%miss 7.1
  • Oklahoma 23 at Florida 7
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Florida −1.253.4%miss 17.2
  • BYU 20 at Utah 28
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Utah −3.759.8%miss 4.3
  • Alabama 31 at LSU 13
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Alabama −0.250.6%miss 17.8
  • Oklahoma St 66 at Kansas St 28
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Kansas St −16.181.5%miss 54.1
  • Iowa St 31 at Baylor 42
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Baylor −3.759.8%miss 7.3
  • Kentucky 6 at Tennessee 34
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Tennessee −16.782.2%miss 11.3
  • LA Tech 41 at Troy 17
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Troy −6.466.0%miss 30.4
  • Texas A&M 9 at S Carolina 17
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Texas A&M −6.465.9%miss 14.4
  • UNC 38 at UConn 21
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX UConn −0.752.1%miss 17.7
  • Temple 35 at Navy 42
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Temple −2.255.9%miss 9.2
  • Boise St 64 at Colorado St 38
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Boise St −11.975.8%miss 14.1
  • Sam Houston 14 at Jax State 47
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Jax State −14.980.0%miss 18.1
  • Miami 24 at Notre Dame 31
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Notre Dame −9.171.1%miss 2.1
  • Air Force 24 at Army 21
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Army −10.573.6%miss 13.5
  • Fresno St 10 at Utah St 17
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Utah St −0.751.9%miss 6.3
  • Texas St 42 at Oregon St 21
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX Texas St −2.055.4%miss 19.0
  • Wyoming 41 at UNLV 35
    2026-11-07 · Box score
    HX UNLV −24.589.0%miss 30.5

How games are graded

  • The pregame number is the HX board that was live when the game was stamped FINAL, saved on the game (Week 0 was frozen before the coach-change moves). Later refits never touch it.
  • HX line and win % come from those two numbers through the board's matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field).
  • Winners picked counts games where the HX favorite won; pick'ems don't count. Average miss = |final margin − HX line|. Brier = squared gap between the HX win % and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
  • n/a: FCS opponents (no HX), and 2026 newcomers' games before they joined the board. These are never filled in from a later board.
  • Vegas comparison uses only games with a Vegas line on file. Method on The Model.