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HASHMARK

2026 season · frozen pregame numbers only

Accuracy

Every FINAL against the HX line and win probability that were live before kickoff. The pregame number is frozen when a game is stamped and never rewritten by a later board. Games with no frozen number are marked n/a, not backfilled.

Winners picked
70.4%
387 of 550 picks
Average miss
13.2 pts
|final margin − HX line|
Brier score
0.194
win % calibration · lower is better
Graded
551
of 696 FINALs · 145 n/a

Against the Vegas line

On the 344 graded games that also have a Vegas line on file, HX missed by 13.1 points on average and the stamped Vegas line missed by 11.6. The market is still better. That is the Soft-cal FLAG, and it stays up. Bias -0.9 (positive = home teams beat the HX line).

By week

Tap a week for its games
WeekGradedWinnersAvg miss
Week 06/850.0%15.1
Week 143/9183.7%14.9
Week 247/8678.7%12.2
Week 356/7587.5%10.0
Week 457/7173.7%12.8
Week 555/5970.4%14.9
Week 656/5858.9%12.7
Week 757/6259.6%12.7
Week 854/5657.4%13.0
Week 954/5681.5%12.4
Week 1061/6359.0%16.0
Week 115/1180.0%16.8
Season551/69670.4%13.2

Week 4 games

71 FINALs
  • Liberty 34 at Coastal 17
    2026-09-24 · Box score
    HX Liberty −1.052.7%miss 16.0
  • Howard 7 at rutgers 58
    2026-09-25
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Army 21 at Temple 17
    2026-09-25 · Box score
    HX Temple −6.666.2%miss 10.6
  • Navy 20 at UAB 24
    2026-09-25 · Box score
    HX UAB −13.878.6%miss 9.8
  • Northwestern 23 at Indiana 29
    2026-09-25 · Box score
    HX Indiana −14.779.8%miss 8.7
  • Clemson 24 at Cal 10
    2026-09-25 · Box score
    HX Clemson −6.766.5%miss 7.3
  • Robert Morris 28 at buffalo 31
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • William & Mary 7 at duke 62
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • NC Central 9 at east-carolina 42
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Lindenwood 3 at eastern-michigan 29
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • LIU 3 at fiu 20
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Central Arkansas 7 at florida-state 34
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Gardner-Webb 35 at marshall 36
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Houston Christian 14 at north-texas 63
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Stonehill 7 at ohio 35
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Bucknell 0 at pittsburgh 59
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Incarnate Word 10 at texas-state 63
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Mercyhurst 7 at western-kentucky 52
    2026-09-26
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • FAU 45 at UL Monroe 17
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX FAU −2.456.4%miss 25.6
  • Colorado 13 at Baylor 23
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Baylor −7.768.6%miss 2.3
  • Utah 31 at Iowa St 17
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Utah −7.367.7%miss 6.7
  • Sam Houston 14 at Texas Tech 49
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Texas Tech −48.197.1%miss 13.1
  • Missouri 24 at Miss St 31
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Missouri −9.571.9%miss 16.5
  • S Carolina 18 at Alabama 49
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Alabama −11.675.3%miss 19.4
  • Oklahoma St 41 at W Virginia 24
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX W Virginia −3.459.1%miss 20.4
  • Texas A&M 6 at LSU 35
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Texas A&M −2.757.4%miss 31.7
  • Oklahoma 13 at Georgia 41
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Georgia −16.682.1%miss 11.4
  • Ole Miss 28 at Florida 52
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Ole Miss −2.556.8%miss 26.5
  • Vanderbilt 15 at Auburn 21
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Auburn −2.657.0%miss 3.4
  • Air Force 36 at Nevada 33
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Nevada −6.766.5%miss 9.7
  • Boise St 32 at Western Mich 7
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Western Mich −0.852.1%miss 25.8
  • San Diego St 16 at Toledo 41
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Toledo −5.563.9%miss 19.5
  • Ball St 13 at Kent St 26
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Kent St −1.754.6%miss 11.3
  • UNLV 38 at Akron 10
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX UNLV −14.078.9%miss 14.0
  • UConn 21 at Miami (OH) 24
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Miami (OH) −6.065.0%miss 3.0
  • USF 14 at Bowling Grn 6
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX USF −11.174.5%miss 3.1
  • Notre Dame 49 at Purdue 10
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Notre Dame −28.591.4%miss 10.5
  • Southern Miss 21 at Tulane 24
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Tulane −1.754.7%miss 1.3
  • Minnesota 27 at Washington 24
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Washington −8.069.1%miss 11.0
  • Wisconsin 24 at Penn St 20
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Penn St −14.679.6%miss 18.6
  • Illinois 19 at Ohio St 42
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Ohio St −27.690.9%miss 4.6
  • Houston 42 at Ga Southern 28
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Houston −7.668.2%miss 6.4
  • Iowa 20 at Michigan 19
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Michigan −7.067.1%miss 8.0
  • JMU 46 at ODU 20
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX JMU −5.363.4%miss 20.7
  • Nebraska 31 at Michigan St 13
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Nebraska −8.970.8%miss 9.1
  • UCLA 54 at Maryland 3
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX UCLA −1.453.8%miss 49.6
  • NIU 14 at Georgia St 35
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Georgia St −4.862.4%miss 16.2
  • Kennesaw 14 at Arkansas St 17
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Arkansas St −11.875.6%miss 8.8
  • Oregon 41 at USC 27
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Oregon −6.065.1%miss 8.0
  • Missouri St 24 at SMU 34
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX SMU −30.692.3%miss 20.6
  • Delaware 3 at Virginia 42
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Virginia −18.183.6%miss 20.9
  • App State 31 at NC State 41
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX NC State −19.284.8%miss 9.2
  • Virginia Tech 21 at Boston Coll 14
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Virginia Tech −7.768.4%miss 0.7
  • Wake Forest 30 at Louisville 27
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Louisville −14.879.8%miss 17.8
  • Colorado St 45 at UTSA 59
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX UTSA −20.986.3%miss 6.9
  • Louisiana 34 at Charlotte 7
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Louisiana −11.875.7%miss 15.2
  • Kansas St 26 at Cincinnati 31
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Kansas St −7.367.8%miss 12.3
  • TCU 13 at UCF 21
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX TCU −5.664.2%miss 13.6
  • Texas 20 at Tennessee 17
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Texas −3.859.9%miss 0.8
  • South Alabama 21 at Kentucky 45
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Kentucky −14.279.2%miss 9.8
  • Hawaiʻi 10 at Wyoming 27
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Hawaiʻi −5.363.5%miss 22.3
  • New Mexico 42 at NM State 18
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX New Mexico −5.163.0%miss 18.9
  • Central Mich 3 at Miami 52
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Miami −39.995.5%miss 9.1
  • Middle Tenn 13 at Jax State 23
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Jax State −17.583.0%miss 7.5
  • Troy 10 at Utah St 21
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Utah St −4.661.9%miss 6.4
  • Arizona 34 at Wash St 24
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Arizona −1.353.6%miss 8.7
  • Tulsa 6 at Arkansas 34
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Arkansas −17.082.5%miss 11.0
  • Oregon St 33 at UTEP 7
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Oregon St −11.174.6%miss 14.9
  • Rice 24 at Fresno St 38
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Fresno St −17.282.7%miss 3.2
  • Georgia Tech 27 at Stanford 34
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    HX Georgia Tech −3.859.9%miss 10.8
  • UMass 35 at Sacramento St 6
    2026-09-26 · Box score
    n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line

How games are graded

  • The pregame number is the HX board that was live when the game was stamped FINAL, saved on the game (Week 0 was frozen before the coach-change moves). Later refits never touch it.
  • HX line and win % come from those two numbers through the board's matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field).
  • Winners picked counts games where the HX favorite won; pick'ems don't count. Average miss = |final margin − HX line|. Brier = squared gap between the HX win % and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
  • n/a: FCS opponents (no HX), and 2026 newcomers' games before they joined the board. These are never filled in from a later board.
  • Vegas comparison uses only games with a Vegas line on file. Method on The Model.