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HASHMARK

2026 season · frozen pregame numbers only

Accuracy

Every FINAL against the HX line and win probability that were live before kickoff. The pregame number is frozen when a game is stamped and never rewritten by a later board. Games with no frozen number are marked n/a, not backfilled.

Winners picked
70.4%
387 of 550 picks
Average miss
13.2 pts
|final margin − HX line|
Brier score
0.194
win % calibration · lower is better
Graded
551
of 696 FINALs · 145 n/a

Against the Vegas line

On the 344 graded games that also have a Vegas line on file, HX missed by 13.1 points on average and the stamped Vegas line missed by 11.6. The market is still better. That is the Soft-cal FLAG, and it stays up. Bias -0.9 (positive = home teams beat the HX line).

By week

Tap a week for its games
WeekGradedWinnersAvg miss
Week 06/850.0%15.1
Week 143/9183.7%14.9
Week 247/8678.7%12.2
Week 356/7587.5%10.0
Week 457/7173.7%12.8
Week 555/5970.4%14.9
Week 656/5858.9%12.7
Week 757/6259.6%12.7
Week 854/5657.4%13.0
Week 954/5681.5%12.4
Week 1061/6359.0%16.0
Week 115/1180.0%16.8
Season551/69670.4%13.2

Week 7 games

62 FINALs
  • Delaware 30 at Middle Tenn 33
    2026-10-13 · Box score
    HX Delaware −3.158.4%miss 6.1
  • FIU 24 at Jax State 27
    2026-10-13 · Box score
    HX Jax State −10.373.3%miss 7.3
  • Kennesaw 21 at Missouri St 24
    2026-10-14 · Box score
    HX Missouri St −7.568.1%miss 4.5
  • WKU 16 at Sam Houston 3
    2026-10-14 · Box score
    HX WKU −11.374.9%miss 1.7
  • ECU 17 at UAB 30
    2026-10-15 · Box score
    HX ECU −1.453.8%miss 14.4
  • Ga Southern 23 at ODU 15
    2026-10-15 · Box score
    HX ODU −4.661.9%miss 12.6
  • Colorado St 27 at Texas St 66
    2026-10-15 · Box score
    HX Texas St −18.383.9%miss 20.7
  • Memphis 17 at Tulane 31
    2026-10-16 · Box score
    HX Memphis −3.759.7%miss 17.7
  • App State 35 at Coastal 32
    2026-10-16 · Box score
    HX Coastal −3.759.8%miss 6.7
  • Washington 38 at Purdue 26
    2026-10-16 · Box score
    HX Washington −11.875.7%miss 0.2
  • Charleston Southern 0 at clemson 37
    2026-10-17
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • The Citadel 0 at texas-am 41
    2026-10-17
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Elon 7 at stanford 34
    2026-10-17
    n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
  • Kansas 24 at Kansas St 35
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Kansas St −8.570.1%miss 2.5
  • TCU 17 at Baylor 6
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX TCU −0.350.9%miss 10.7
  • Arizona St 25 at Texas Tech 53
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Texas Tech −18.584.1%miss 9.5
  • Cincinnati 42 at W Virginia 45
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX W Virginia −2.857.5%miss 0.2
  • San José St 24 at UTEP 11
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX San José St −0.752.1%miss 12.3
  • Kent St 2 at USF 29
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX USF −26.590.3%miss 0.5
  • Charlotte 38 at Temple 31
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Temple −11.775.5%miss 18.7
  • Georgia St 22 at JMU 49
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX JMU −25.689.7%miss 1.4
  • Troy 6 at Louisiana 33
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Louisiana −3.358.7%miss 23.7
  • LA Tech 24 at UL Monroe 0
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX LA Tech −5.463.7%miss 18.6
  • Arkansas St 23 at Southern Miss 13
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Southern Miss −5.864.7%miss 15.8
  • Notre Dame 24 at BYU 28
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Notre Dame −5.563.8%miss 9.5
  • Oklahoma St 32 at Houston 35
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Houston −13.077.5%miss 10.0
  • Tulsa 38 at Rice 17
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Rice −1.955.2%miss 22.9
  • Navy 34 at UTSA 38
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX UTSA −28.591.4%miss 24.5
  • Wake Forest 41 at Cal 7
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Cal −5.764.3%miss 39.7
  • Pitt 21 at Boston Coll 27
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Pitt −6.265.4%miss 12.2
  • UNC 24 at Duke 20
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Duke −12.176.1%miss 16.1
  • Louisville 34 at Syracuse 26
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Louisville −10.573.5%miss 2.5
  • Georgia Tech 24 at Virginia Tech 34
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Virginia Tech −2.155.6%miss 7.9
  • Florida St 35 at Miami 43
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Miami −21.787.0%miss 13.7
  • Virginia 13 at SMU 23
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX SMU −12.276.2%miss 2.2
  • Utah 27 at Colorado 24
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Utah −11.475.0%miss 8.4
  • Wisconsin 7 at UCLA 17
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX UCLA −3.960.2%miss 6.1
  • Ohio St 19 at Indiana 15
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Ohio St −5.563.9%miss 1.5
  • Rutgers 37 at Maryland 30
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Maryland −2.456.6%miss 9.4
  • Northwestern 24 at Michigan St 21
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Northwestern −8.369.7%miss 5.3
  • Penn St 18 at Michigan 21
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Michigan −5.263.3%miss 2.2
  • Nebraska 14 at Oregon 17
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Oregon −21.887.0%miss 18.8
  • Ball St 32 at Bowling Grn 31
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Bowling Grn −6.566.1%miss 7.5
  • Akron 14 at Miami (OH) 34
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Miami (OH) −12.376.5%miss 7.7
  • UMass 18 at Buffalo 25
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Buffalo −24.589.0%miss 17.5
  • Western Mich 21 at Central Mich 14
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Western Mich −8.269.5%miss 1.2
  • Toledo 34 at Eastern Mich 14
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Toledo −10.173.0%miss 9.9
  • New Mexico 21 at Hawaiʻi 10
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Hawaiʻi −6.365.6%miss 17.3
  • Auburn 27 at Georgia 24
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Georgia −25.189.4%miss 28.1
  • Miss St 0 at LSU 31
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX LSU −17.583.0%miss 13.5
  • Missouri 3 at Ole Miss 31
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Ole Miss −7.167.3%miss 20.9
  • Kentucky 21 at Oklahoma 13
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Oklahoma −17.382.8%miss 25.3
  • Arkansas 31 at Vanderbilt 21
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Vanderbilt −9.571.8%miss 19.5
  • Florida 27 at Texas 24
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Texas −13.478.1%miss 16.4
  • Alabama 10 at Tennessee 26
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Alabama −0.451.2%miss 16.4
  • FAU 24 at Army 56
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX FAU −0.651.8%miss 32.6
  • NIU 23 at Wyoming 41
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Wyoming −6.666.2%miss 11.4
  • UNLV 31 at Air Force 41
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX UNLV −27.190.6%miss 37.1
  • Wash St 30 at Oregon St 48
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX Wash St −1.955.2%miss 19.9
  • Fresno St 23 at San Diego St 26
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    HX San Diego St −5.062.8%miss 2.0
  • Nevada 17 at N Dakota St 31
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line
  • Ohio 48 at Sacramento St 7
    2026-10-17 · Box score
    n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line

How games are graded

  • The pregame number is the HX board that was live when the game was stamped FINAL, saved on the game (Week 0 was frozen before the coach-change moves). Later refits never touch it.
  • HX line and win % come from those two numbers through the board's matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field).
  • Winners picked counts games where the HX favorite won; pick'ems don't count. Average miss = |final margin − HX line|. Brier = squared gap between the HX win % and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
  • n/a: FCS opponents (no HX), and 2026 newcomers' games before they joined the board. These are never filled in from a later board.
  • Vegas comparison uses only games with a Vegas line on file. Method on The Model.