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HASHMARK

2026 season · frozen pregame numbers only

Accuracy

Every FINAL against the HX line and win probability that were live before kickoff. The pregame number is frozen when a game is stamped and never rewritten by a later board. Games with no frozen number are marked n/a, not backfilled.

Winners picked
70.4%
387 of 550 picks
Average miss
13.2 pts
|final margin − HX line|
Brier score
0.194
win % calibration · lower is better
Graded
551
of 696 FINALs · 145 n/a

Against the Vegas line

On the 344 graded games that also have a Vegas line on file, HX missed by 13.1 points on average and the stamped Vegas line missed by 11.6. The market is still better. That is the Soft-cal FLAG, and it stays up. Bias -0.9 (positive = home teams beat the HX line).

By week

Tap a week for its games
WeekGradedWinnersAvg miss
Week 06/850.0%15.1
Week 143/9183.7%14.9
Week 247/8678.7%12.2
Week 356/7587.5%10.0
Week 457/7173.7%12.8
Week 555/5970.4%14.9
Week 656/5858.9%12.7
Week 757/6259.6%12.7
Week 854/5657.4%13.0
Week 954/5681.5%12.4
Week 1061/6359.0%16.0
Week 115/1180.0%16.8
Season551/69670.4%13.2

Week 8 games

56 FINALs
  • Missouri St 38 at Delaware 61
    2026-10-20 · Box score
    HX Delaware −3.358.9%miss 19.7
  • Middle Tenn 26 at FIU 23
    2026-10-20 · Box score
    HX FIU −9.271.4%miss 12.2
  • South Alabama 13 at Marshall 20
    2026-10-20 · Box score
    HX Marshall −13.978.6%miss 6.9
  • NM State 30 at Sam Houston 24
    2026-10-21 · Box score
    HX Sam Houston −5.062.8%miss 11.0
  • JMU 31 at App State 34
    2026-10-22 · Box score
    HX JMU −8.269.5%miss 11.2
  • Liberty 34 at Kennesaw 6
    2026-10-22 · Box score
    HX Liberty −7.367.8%miss 20.7
  • ECU 34 at Memphis 41
    2026-10-22 · Box score
    HX Memphis −8.469.9%miss 1.4
  • UMass 16 at UConn 35
    2026-10-23 · Box score
    HX UConn −31.892.9%miss 12.8
  • Duke 19 at Virginia 16
    2026-10-23 · Box score
    HX Virginia −2.757.2%miss 5.7
  • Army 38 at Tulsa 35
    2026-10-23 · Box score
    HX Tulsa −7.167.4%miss 10.1
  • Air Force 14 at Wyoming 28
    2026-10-23 · Box score
    HX Wyoming −12.777.0%miss 1.3
  • NC State 28 at Stanford 31
    2026-10-23 · Box score
    HX NC State −5.463.7%miss 8.4
  • Akron 20 at Kent St 35
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Akron −3.559.2%miss 18.5
  • Oklahoma 23 at Miss St 15
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Oklahoma −9.371.5%miss 1.3
  • UTSA 42 at Tulane 19
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX UTSA −4.260.9%miss 18.8
  • BYU 31 at UCF 39
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX BYU −12.576.8%miss 20.5
  • Texas Tech 24 at Cincinnati 37
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Texas Tech −20.385.7%miss 33.3
  • Syracuse 31 at UNC 30
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX UNC −4.160.7%miss 5.1
  • Pitt 23 at Miami 52
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Miami −19.785.2%miss 9.3
  • Cal 20 at SMU 59
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX SMU −15.280.3%miss 23.8
  • Kansas St 17 at Arizona St 28
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Arizona St −0.752.0%miss 10.3
  • Vanderbilt 17 at Kentucky 34
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Vanderbilt −3.058.1%miss 20.0
  • Iowa St 3 at Arizona 39
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Arizona −8.369.7%miss 27.7
  • ODU 0 at LA Tech 26
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX LA Tech −1.353.5%miss 24.7
  • Hawaiʻi 56 at NIU 21
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Hawaiʻi −8.670.1%miss 26.4
  • San José St 13 at Nevada 28
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX San José St −0.250.5%miss 15.2
  • Houston 13 at Utah 21
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Utah −12.476.6%miss 4.4
  • USC 7 at Wisconsin 24
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX USC −4.862.2%miss 21.8
  • Eastern Mich 20 at Ohio 24
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Ohio −13.578.1%miss 9.5
  • Michigan St 10 at UCLA 28
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX UCLA −15.080.1%miss 3.0
  • UL Monroe 21 at Troy 14
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Troy −17.382.8%miss 24.3
  • Iowa 10 at Minnesota 13
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Iowa −1.955.2%miss 4.9
  • Louisiana 31 at Southern Miss 35
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Southern Miss −4.461.4%miss 0.4
  • Georgia St 32 at Arkansas St 38
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Arkansas St −12.877.2%miss 6.8
  • Rutgers 14 at Northwestern 42
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Northwestern −9.571.9%miss 18.5
  • Miami (OH) 28 at Central Mich 27
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Miami (OH) −3.659.5%miss 2.6
  • Texas A&M 20 at Alabama 31
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Alabama −0.952.5%miss 10.1
  • Boston Coll 49 at Georgia Tech 27
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Georgia Tech −17.482.9%miss 39.4
  • Baylor 24 at Kansas 25
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Kansas −2.757.2%miss 1.7
  • Colorado 24 at Oklahoma St 57
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Oklahoma St −0.651.6%miss 32.4
  • Tennessee 24 at S Carolina 27
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Tennessee −0.250.5%miss 3.2
  • Oregon 10 at Illinois 21
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Oregon −14.479.3%miss 25.4
  • Virginia Tech 20 at Clemson 16
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Clemson −12.176.1%miss 16.1
  • Western Mich 38 at Toledo 45
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Toledo −6.766.5%miss 0.3
  • Bowling Grn 24 at Buffalo 31
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Buffalo −6.365.7%miss 0.7
  • W Virginia 24 at TCU 20
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX TCU −15.180.2%miss 19.1
  • Indiana 13 at Michigan 6
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Michigan −3.058.0%miss 10.0
  • Ole Miss 27 at Texas 34
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Texas −6.566.1%miss 0.5
  • Rice 49 at FAU 51
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX FAU −4.962.7%miss 2.9
  • LSU 38 at Auburn 17
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX LSU −2.356.2%miss 18.7
  • North Texas 49 at Navy 39
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX North Texas −5.463.7%miss 4.6
  • Boise St 31 at Wash St 10
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Wash St −1.453.9%miss 22.4
  • Utah St 17 at Texas St 20
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX Texas St −7.969.0%miss 4.9
  • San Diego St 49 at Colorado St 56
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    HX San Diego St −9.772.2%miss 16.7
  • Sacramento St 17 at Ball St 34
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line
  • N Dakota St 16 at New Mexico 21
    2026-10-24 · Box score
    n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line

How games are graded

  • The pregame number is the HX board that was live when the game was stamped FINAL, saved on the game (Week 0 was frozen before the coach-change moves). Later refits never touch it.
  • HX line and win % come from those two numbers through the board's matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field).
  • Winners picked counts games where the HX favorite won; pick'ems don't count. Average miss = |final margin − HX line|. Brier = squared gap between the HX win % and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
  • n/a: FCS opponents (no HX), and 2026 newcomers' games before they joined the board. These are never filled in from a later board.
  • Vegas comparison uses only games with a Vegas line on file. Method on The Model.