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HASHMARK

2026 season · frozen pregame numbers only

Accuracy

Every FINAL against the HX line and win probability that were live before kickoff. The pregame number is frozen when a game is stamped and never rewritten by a later board. Games with no frozen number are marked n/a, not backfilled.

Winners picked
70.4%
387 of 550 picks
Average miss
13.2 pts
|final margin − HX line|
Brier score
0.194
win % calibration · lower is better
Graded
551
of 696 FINALs · 145 n/a

Against the Vegas line

On the 344 graded games that also have a Vegas line on file, HX missed by 13.1 points on average and the stamped Vegas line missed by 11.6. The market is still better. That is the Soft-cal FLAG, and it stays up. Bias -0.9 (positive = home teams beat the HX line).

By week

Tap a week for its games
WeekGradedWinnersAvg miss
Week 06/850.0%15.1
Week 143/9183.7%14.9
Week 247/8678.7%12.2
Week 356/7587.5%10.0
Week 457/7173.7%12.8
Week 555/5970.4%14.9
Week 656/5858.9%12.7
Week 757/6259.6%12.7
Week 854/5657.4%13.0
Week 954/5681.5%12.4
Week 1061/6359.0%16.0
Week 115/1180.0%16.8
Season551/69670.4%13.2

Week 9 games

56 FINALs
  • Delaware 35 at WKU 21
    2026-10-27 · Box score
    HX WKU −13.778.4%miss 27.7
  • Sam Houston 3 at Missouri St 24
    2026-10-27 · Box score
    HX Missouri St −8.269.5%miss 12.8
  • Kennesaw 44 at Middle Tenn 28
    2026-10-28 · Box score
    HX Middle Tenn −0.852.2%miss 16.8
  • Jax State 24 at NM State 0
    2026-10-28 · Box score
    HX Jax State −8.870.6%miss 15.2
  • FAU 41 at North Texas 48
    2026-10-29 · Box score
    HX North Texas −5.864.6%miss 1.2
  • Troy 24 at JMU 21
    2026-10-29 · Box score
    HX JMU −12.176.1%miss 15.1
  • Tulane 38 at Charlotte 31
    2026-10-30 · Box score
    HX Tulane −11.274.7%miss 4.2
  • Baylor 41 at UCF 9
    2026-10-30 · Box score
    HX Baylor −1.855.0%miss 30.2
  • Kent St 10 at Sacramento St 31
    2026-10-30 · Box score
    n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line
  • Oregon St 22 at Fresno St 38
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Fresno St −7.167.3%miss 8.9
  • Illinois 20 at Maryland 17
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Illinois −2.356.3%miss 0.7
  • UAB 10 at USF 30
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX USF −10.473.5%miss 9.6
  • Northwestern 26 at Oregon 34
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Oregon −22.687.6%miss 14.6
  • Temple 9 at ECU 17
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX ECU −12.977.4%miss 4.9
  • Arizona St 20 at BYU 27
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX BYU −12.076.0%miss 5.0
  • Oklahoma St 49 at Iowa St 51
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Iowa St −9.972.6%miss 7.9
  • Wisconsin 0 at Iowa 30
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Iowa −11.875.7%miss 18.2
  • Arizona 26 at Texas Tech 34
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Texas Tech −15.380.5%miss 7.3
  • Clemson 36 at Florida St 24
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Clemson −7.468.0%miss 4.6
  • Utah 49 at Cincinnati 25
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Utah −14.279.1%miss 9.8
  • Coastal 31 at Georgia St 20
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Coastal −3.458.9%miss 7.6
  • Stanford 24 at Louisville 52
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Louisville −16.982.4%miss 11.1
  • Army 22 at Memphis 49
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Memphis −24.388.8%miss 2.7
  • Boston Coll 2 at Duke 47
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Duke −17.082.5%miss 28.0
  • Cal 10 at NC State 31
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX NC State −8.169.4%miss 12.9
  • Miami 38 at UNC 35
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Miami −18.383.9%miss 15.3
  • Virginia 7 at Wake Forest 51
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Virginia −1.353.5%miss 45.3
  • SMU 27 at Syracuse 30
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX SMU −14.179.0%miss 17.1
  • Georgia Tech 11 at Pitt 34
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Pitt −0.852.3%miss 22.2
  • Auburn 15 at Ole Miss 45
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Ole Miss −14.579.5%miss 15.5
  • Purdue 17 at Penn St 31
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Penn St −25.389.5%miss 11.3
  • Kansas 16 at TCU 22
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX TCU −7.768.6%miss 1.7
  • Michigan 28 at Rutgers 21
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Michigan −12.977.2%miss 5.9
  • Miss St 3 at Texas 31
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Texas −28.091.1%miss 0.0
  • Washington 17 at Nebraska 10
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Washington −0.451.3%miss 6.6
  • Missouri 34 at Arkansas 10
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Missouri −8.169.4%miss 15.9
  • Kansas St 24 at Colorado 27
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Kansas St −4.962.5%miss 7.9
  • S Carolina 42 at Oklahoma 25
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Oklahoma −7.568.0%miss 24.5
  • Nevada 0 at UCLA 27
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX UCLA −30.592.3%miss 3.5
  • Southern Miss 35 at UL Monroe 21
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Southern Miss −10.373.2%miss 3.7
  • Ohio St 18 at USC 30
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Ohio St −9.371.4%miss 21.3
  • New Mexico 21 at San José St 16
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX New Mexico −3.458.9%miss 1.6
  • App State 3 at Ga Southern 19
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Ga Southern −4.261.0%miss 11.8
  • Minnesota 16 at Indiana 23
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Indiana −13.878.6%miss 6.8
  • LA Tech 35 at South Alabama 20
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX South Alabama −1.052.8%miss 16.0
  • Marshall 36 at ODU 23
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Marshall −1.654.3%miss 11.4
  • Notre Dame 35 vs Navy 13
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Notre Dame −54.297.9%miss 32.2
  • Bowling Grn 10 at Western Mich 23
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Western Mich −21.186.4%miss 8.1
  • UConn 26 at Air Force 35
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX UConn −11.775.5%miss 20.7
  • Florida 8 vs Georgia 27
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Georgia −14.879.9%miss 4.2
  • FIU 10 at Liberty 49
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Liberty −11.775.5%miss 27.3
  • Colorado St 14 at Utah St 31
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Utah St −12.676.8%miss 4.4
  • Wash St 20 at San Diego St 26
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX San Diego St −3.358.7%miss 2.7
  • Texas St 45 at Boise St 46
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX Boise St −5.062.9%miss 4.0
  • NIU 24 at UNLV 31
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    HX UNLV −29.591.8%miss 22.5
  • UTEP 7 at N Dakota St 31
    2026-10-31 · Box score
    n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line

How games are graded

  • The pregame number is the HX board that was live when the game was stamped FINAL, saved on the game (Week 0 was frozen before the coach-change moves). Later refits never touch it.
  • HX line and win % come from those two numbers through the board's matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field).
  • Winners picked counts games where the HX favorite won; pick'ems don't count. Average miss = |final margin − HX line|. Brier = squared gap between the HX win % and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
  • n/a: FCS opponents (no HX), and 2026 newcomers' games before they joined the board. These are never filled in from a later board.
  • Vegas comparison uses only games with a Vegas line on file. Method on The Model.