2026 season · frozen pregame numbers only
Accuracy
Every FINAL against the HX line and win probability that were live before kickoff. The pregame number is frozen when a game is stamped and never rewritten by a later board. Games with no frozen number are marked n/a, not backfilled.
Winners picked
70.4%
387 of 550 picks
Average miss
13.2 pts
|final margin − HX line|
Brier score
0.194
win % calibration · lower is better
Graded
551
of 696 FINALs · 145 n/a
Against the Vegas line
On the 344 graded games that also have a Vegas line on file, HX missed by 13.1 points on average and the stamped Vegas line missed by 11.6. The market is still better. That is the Soft-cal FLAG, and it stays up. Bias -0.9 (positive = home teams beat the HX line).
By week
Tap a week for its games| Week | Graded | Winners | Avg miss | Brier | HX / Vegas miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 0 | 6/8 | 50.0% | 15.1 | 0.247 | 15.1 / 14.8 (6) |
| Week 1 | 43/91 | 83.7% | 14.9 | 0.130 | 14.9 / 13.6 (43) |
| Week 2 | 47/86 | 78.7% | 12.2 | 0.147 | 12.2 / 10.5 (47) |
| Week 3 | 56/75 | 87.5% | 10.0 | 0.119 | 10.0 / 8.7 (56) |
| Week 4 | 57/71 | 73.7% | 12.8 | 0.181 | 12.8 / 11.2 (57) |
| Week 5 | 55/59 | 70.4% | 14.9 | 0.195 | 14.9 / 13.2 (55) |
| Week 6 | 56/58 | 58.9% | 12.7 | 0.232 | 12.7 / 11.5 (56) |
| Week 7 | 57/62 | 59.6% | 12.7 | 0.234 | 12.5 / 13.7 (6) |
| Week 8 | 54/56 | 57.4% | 13.0 | 0.260 | 12.3 / 7.4 (7) |
| Week 9 | 54/56 | 81.5% | 12.4 | 0.153 | 20.8 / 17.0 (6) |
| Week 10 | 61/63 | 59.0% | 16.0 | 0.266 | 21.8 / 19.8 (5) |
| Week 11 | 5/11 | 80.0% | 16.8 | 0.123 | n/a |
| Season | 551/696 | 70.4% | 13.2 | 0.194 | 13.1 / 11.6 (344) |
Week 1 games
91 FINALs- UAlbany 17 at buffalo 212026-09-03n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Merrimack 7 at delaware 422026-09-03n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- West Georgia 0 at kennesaw-state 472026-09-03n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Eastern Illinois 7 at minnesota 592026-09-03n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- UAPB 14 at missouri 542026-09-03n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Bethune-Cookman 6 at ucf 732026-09-03n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Idaho 14 at utah 662026-09-03n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- UAB 23 at Illinois 422026-09-03 · Box scoreHX Illinois −16.982.4%miss 2.1
- UMass 37 at Rutgers 212026-09-03 · Box scoreHX Rutgers −42.096.0%miss 58.0
- Akron 16 at Wake Forest 382026-09-03 · Box scoreHX Wake Forest −14.980.0%miss 7.1
- Colorado 14 at Georgia Tech 132026-09-03 · Box scoreHX Georgia Tech −10.373.3%miss 11.3
- LIU 6 at kansas 512026-09-04n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Indiana State 19 at purdue 442026-09-04n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- North Carolina A&T 10 at georgia-state 592026-09-04n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- San José St 27 at Eastern Mich 212026-09-04 · Box scoreHX Eastern Mich −8.469.8%miss 14.4
- UTEP 0 at Oklahoma 512026-09-04 · Box scoreHX Oklahoma −46.296.8%miss 4.8
- Toledo 20 at Michigan St 302026-09-04 · Box scoreHX Toledo −7.067.1%miss 17.0
- Miami 45 at Stanford 62026-09-04 · Box scoreHX Miami −17.082.5%miss 22.0
- Fresno St 0 at USC 392026-09-04 · Box scoreHX USC −16.381.7%miss 22.7
- Fordham 0 at north-dakota-state 382026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Mississippi Valley State 0 at sacramento-state 522026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Duquesne 0 at air-force 342026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Maine 3 at app-state 552026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Northern Arizona 7 at arizona 352026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Morgan State 7 at arizona-state 702026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- North Alabama 14 at arkansas 312026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Bryant 3 at army 592026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Tarleton State 20 at bowling-green 132026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Utah Tech 7 at byu 632026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- The Citadel 43 at charlotte 412026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Tennessee State 3 at georgia 632026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Charleston Southern 0 at georgia-southern 312026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Southeast Missouri State 10 at iowa-state 382026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Eastern Kentucky 7 at jacksonville-state 492026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Nicholls 3 at kansas-state 712026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Youngstown State 13 at kentucky 452026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Lamar 7 at louisiana 382026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Northwestern State 6 at louisiana-tech 802026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Hampton 0 at maryland 622026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Murray State 14 at middle-tennessee 382026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Towson 15 at navy 422026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Mercyhurst 14 at new-mexico-state 512026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- South Dakota State 18 at northwestern 342026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Norfolk State 10 at old-dominion 312026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Houston Christian 3 at rice 312026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Portland State 20 at san-diego-state 532026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- SE Louisiana 14 at south-alabama 392026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Alcorn State 3 at southern-miss 492026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- New Hampshire 3 at syracuse 662026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Rhode Island 14 at temple 382026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Furman 9 at tennessee 562026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Abilene Christian 10 at texas-tech 332026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Lafayette 7 at uconn 562026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Idaho State 29 at utah-state 172026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- UT Rio Grande Valley 16 at utsa 452026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- Austin Peay 9 at vanderbilt 282026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- VMI 3 at virginia-tech 732026-09-05n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
- ECU 10 at Alabama 482026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Alabama −25.889.8%miss 12.2
- Oregon St 20 at Houston 332026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Houston −12.977.4%miss 0.1
- Coastal 24 at W Virginia 312026-09-05 · Box scoreHX W Virginia −5.864.5%miss 1.2
- North Texas 16 at Indiana 522026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Indiana −32.893.3%miss 3.2
- Ohio 21 at Nebraska 492026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Nebraska −9.171.1%miss 18.9
- Liberty 13 at JMU 202026-09-05 · Box scoreHX JMU −10.774.0%miss 3.7
- Miami (OH) 14 at Pitt 592026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Pitt −9.571.9%miss 35.5
- Ball St 3 at Ohio St 562026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Ohio St −68.799.0%miss 15.7
- Kent St 0 at S Carolina 572026-09-05 · Box scoreHX S Carolina −41.195.8%miss 15.9
- Baylor 16 vs Auburn 172026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Auburn −3.860.0%miss 2.8
- Texas St 7 at Texas 592026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Texas −25.189.4%miss 26.9
- Boston Coll 15 at Cincinnati 342026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Cincinnati −7.768.5%miss 11.3
- Tulane 3 at Duke 172026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Duke −12.476.5%miss 1.6
- Boise St 27 at Oregon 342026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Oregon −25.189.4%miss 18.1
- Marshall 0 at Penn St 452026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Penn St −18.584.1%miss 26.5
- Oklahoma St 10 at Tulsa 242026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Oklahoma St −2.456.5%miss 16.4
- NIU 0 at Iowa 402026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Iowa −40.295.6%miss 0.2
- Wyoming 13 at Colorado St 352026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Colorado St −4.561.6%miss 17.5
- Missouri St 0 at Texas A&M 502026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Texas A&M −42.096.0%miss 8.0
- Arkansas St 24 at Memphis 422026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Memphis −12.276.3%miss 5.8
- FIU 9 at USF 192026-09-05 · Box scoreHX USF −14.879.9%miss 4.8
- Sam Houston 21 at Troy 242026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Troy −14.579.4%miss 11.5
- Clemson 10 at LSU 512026-09-05 · Box scoreHX LSU −3.659.5%miss 37.4
- UL Monroe 13 at Miss St 622026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Miss St −22.587.5%miss 26.5
- Western Mich 12 at Michigan 132026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Michigan −19.685.1%miss 18.6
- FAU 21 at Florida 662026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Florida −29.792.0%miss 15.3
- UNLV 21 at Hawaiʻi 62026-09-05 · Box scoreHX UNLV −4.762.1%miss 10.3
- Central Mich 7 at New Mexico 382026-09-05 · Box scoreHX New Mexico −7.568.2%miss 23.5
- UCLA 45 at Cal 242026-09-05 · Box scoreHX Cal −1.353.5%miss 22.3
- WKU 14 at Nevada 492026-09-05 · Box scoreHX WKU −16.181.4%miss 51.1
- Wash St 10 at Washington 242026-09-06 · Box scoreHX Washington −12.176.1%miss 1.9
- Louisville 38 vs Ole Miss 412026-09-06 · Box scoreHX Ole Miss −7.968.9%miss 4.9
- Wisconsin 13 vs Notre Dame 412026-09-06 · Box scoreHX Notre Dame −21.987.1%miss 6.1
- SMU 27 at Florida St 242026-09-07 · Box scoreHX SMU −8.369.6%miss 5.3
How games are graded
- The pregame number is the HX board that was live when the game was stamped FINAL, saved on the game (Week 0 was frozen before the coach-change moves). Later refits never touch it.
- HX line and win % come from those two numbers through the board's matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field).
- Winners picked counts games where the HX favorite won; pick'ems don't count. Average miss = |final margin − HX line|. Brier = squared gap between the HX win % and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
- n/a: FCS opponents (no HX), and 2026 newcomers' games before they joined the board. These are never filled in from a later board.
- Vegas comparison uses only games with a Vegas line on file. Method on The Model.