2026 season · frozen pregame numbers only

Accuracy

Every FINAL against the HX line and win probability that were live before kickoff. The pregame number is frozen when a game is stamped and never rewritten by a later board. Games with no frozen number are marked n/a, not backfilled.

Winners picked

70.4%

387 of 550 picks

Average miss

13.2 pts

|final margin − HX line|

Brier score

0.194

win % calibration · lower is better

Graded

551

of 696 FINALs · 145 n/a

Against the Vegas line

On the 344 graded games that also have a Vegas line on file, HX missed by 13.1 points on average and the stamped Vegas line missed by 11.6. The market is still better. That is the Soft-cal FLAG, and it stays up. Bias -0.9 (positive = home teams beat the HX line).

By week

Tap a week for its games

Week	Graded	Winners	Avg miss	Brier	HX / Vegas miss
Week 0	6/8	50.0%	15.1	0.247	15.1 / 14.8 (6)
Week 1	43/91	83.7%	14.9	0.130	14.9 / 13.6 (43)
Week 2	47/86	78.7%	12.2	0.147	12.2 / 10.5 (47)
Week 3	56/75	87.5%	10.0	0.119	10.0 / 8.7 (56)
Week 4	57/71	73.7%	12.8	0.181	12.8 / 11.2 (57)
Week 5	55/59	70.4%	14.9	0.195	14.9 / 13.2 (55)
Week 6	56/58	58.9%	12.7	0.232	12.7 / 11.5 (56)
Week 7	57/62	59.6%	12.7	0.234	12.5 / 13.7 (6)
Week 8	54/56	57.4%	13.0	0.260	12.3 / 7.4 (7)
Week 9	54/56	81.5%	12.4	0.153	20.8 / 17.0 (6)
Week 10	61/63	59.0%	16.0	0.266	21.8 / 19.8 (5)
Week 11	5/11	80.0%	16.8	0.123	n/a
Season	551/696	70.4%	13.2	0.194	13.1 / 11.6 (344)

Week 2 games

86 FINALs

FAMU 7 at MIA 77
2026-09-10
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
VILL 13 at LOU 59
2026-09-11
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
RICH 0 at NCSU 73
2026-09-11
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
NORF 3 at UVA 59
2026-09-11
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Rutgers 21 at Boston Coll 28
2026-09-11 · Box score
HX Rutgers −3.358.8%miss 10.3
Missouri 38 at Kansas 21
2026-09-11 · Box score
HX Missouri −7.768.6%miss 9.3
HOW 0 at IU 55
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
WOF 15 at KENT 36
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
ETSU 3 at UNC 35
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
COLG 10 at CMU 13
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
HC 7 at M-OH 45
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
UTM 7 at WVU 52
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
STBK 17 at BALL 41
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
RMU 10 at AKR 45
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
WEB 21 at COLO 52
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
WAG 3 at JMU 87
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
SHU 10 at MASS 37
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
CCSU 10 at TOL 63
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
MERC 7 at UNM 70
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
UCD 10 at SMU 56
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
ALST 17 at TROY 34
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
UNCO 13 at WYO 21
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
CAM 3 at FLA 52
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
GWEB 23 at LIB 24
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
MONM 14 at WMU 49
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
WES 7 at ARST 52
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
WCU 10 at CIN 62
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
SUU 24 at CSU 58
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
SOU 6 at HOU 77
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
LIN 14 at MOST 48
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
ILST 28 at NIU 24
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
TOW 9 at SC 45
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
WIU 9 at WIS 36
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
FOR 7 at CCU 45
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
GRAM 7 at TCU 63
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
PV 3 at BAY 44
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
CP 20 at SJSU 30
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
TXSO 10 at UTEP 51
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
MTST 20 at NEV 7
2026-09-12
n/a · FCS opponent: no HX
Southern Miss 8 at Auburn 43
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Auburn −13.277.7%miss 21.8
NM State 19 at Hawaiʻi 29
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Hawaiʻi −17.282.7%miss 7.2
ODU 21 at Virginia Tech 44
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Virginia Tech −11.875.7%miss 11.2
Oklahoma 10 at Michigan 17
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Michigan −5.463.7%miss 1.6
Wake Forest 38 at Purdue 36
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Wake Forest −0.551.4%miss 1.5
USF 28 at Army 24
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX USF −11.274.7%miss 7.2
Oregon 31 at Oklahoma St 39
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Oregon −27.090.5%miss 35.0
Arizona St 20 at Texas A&M 48
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Texas A&M −20.585.9%miss 7.5
Penn St 27 at Temple 9
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Penn St −24.989.3%miss 6.9
App State 27 at ECU 24
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX ECU −9.171.2%miss 12.1
Wash St 7 at Kansas St 34
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Kansas St −8.469.8%miss 18.6
WKU 20 at Georgia 70
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Georgia −34.894.0%miss 15.2
Miss St 38 at Minnesota 13
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Minnesota −9.271.4%miss 34.2
Rice 0 at Notre Dame 52
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Notre Dame −52.197.7%miss 0.1
UCF 7 at Pitt 12
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Pitt −8.570.1%miss 3.5
Cal 21 at Syracuse 18
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Cal −2.556.8%miss 0.5
Duke 31 at Illinois 27
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Illinois −3.759.7%miss 7.7
Alabama 45 at Kentucky 17
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Alabama −13.478.0%miss 14.6
Utah St 14 at Washington 16
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Washington −17.883.4%miss 15.8
Eastern Mich 7 at Michigan St 35
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Michigan St −6.065.1%miss 22.0
Arizona 17 at BYU 28
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX BYU −8.970.8%miss 2.1
UL Monroe 20 at UAB 26
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX UAB −13.277.8%miss 7.2
Maryland 38 at UConn 14
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Maryland −1.554.2%miss 22.5
N Dakota St 38 at Air Force 32
2026-09-12 · Box score
n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line
Sacramento St 3 at Fresno St 49
2026-09-12 · Box score
n/a · Newcomer: no pregame HX line
UTSA 31 at Texas St 26
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Texas St −1.353.5%miss 6.3
UNLV 6 at North Texas 44
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX UNLV −9.271.3%miss 47.2
Delaware 26 at Vanderbilt 35
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Vanderbilt −22.587.6%miss 13.5
Jax State 27 at Ohio 29
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Ohio −7.067.1%miss 5.0
Memphis 20 at Boise St 38
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Boise St −4.060.4%miss 14.0
Buffalo 20 at FIU 33
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX FIU −4.261.0%miss 8.8
Tulsa 23 at Sam Houston 17
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Sam Houston −0.150.2%miss 6.1
Georgia St 31 at Kennesaw 17
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Kennesaw −4.962.5%miss 18.9
South Alabama 24 at Tulane 28
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Tulane −8.870.5%miss 4.8
Bowling Grn 7 at Nebraska 56
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Nebraska −28.591.3%miss 20.5
Middle Tenn 26 at Marshall 28
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Marshall −22.487.5%miss 20.4
Tennessee 45 at Georgia Tech 24
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Tennessee −4.060.4%miss 17.0
San Diego St 10 at UCLA 28
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX UCLA −4.762.1%miss 13.3
Iowa St 13 at Iowa 16
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Iowa −13.578.2%miss 10.5
LA Tech 14 at LSU 45
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX LSU −27.590.8%miss 3.5
Ga Southern 7 at Clemson 22
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Clemson −25.589.7%miss 10.5
Texas Tech 35 at Oregon St 24
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Texas Tech −21.486.7%miss 10.4
Ohio St 23 at Texas 24
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Ohio St −1.052.8%miss 2.0
Navy 30 at FAU 38
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX FAU −9.772.2%miss 1.7
Charlotte 9 at Ole Miss 41
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Ole Miss −55.598.0%miss 23.5
Arkansas 10 at Utah 43
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX Utah −16.281.6%miss 16.8
Louisiana 30 at USC 49
2026-09-12 · Box score
HX USC −22.087.2%miss 3.0

How games are graded

The pregame number is the HX board that was live when the game was stamped FINAL, saved on the game (Week 0 was frozen before the coach-change moves). Later refits never touch it.
HX line and win % come from those two numbers through the board's matchup engine (Elo = 1500 + 55 × HX, 60 points home field).
Winners picked counts games where the HX favorite won; pick'ems don't count. Average miss = |final margin − HX line|. Brier = squared gap between the HX win % and the result (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip).
n/a: FCS opponents (no HX), and 2026 newcomers' games before they joined the board. These are never filled in from a later board.
Vegas comparison uses only games with a Vegas line on file. Method on The Model.